|
|
|
| Articles |
|
Arlington Million by DaMan Sports When looking at a horse race the first thing I do is eliminate the horses I think don't have a chance, then look at whats left. Being from Chicago, the Race of the Day here is the Arlington Million. When handicapping a race there are dozens of things to look at. How fast is each horse? How will each horse perform on this day? How much rest has each horse had? The level the horse is performing at now vs last year. Will the horse be in a position to save or lose ground? How much weight is each horse carrying? The conditions of the track and the track bias, % with this jockey or change in jockey, adding or removing bandages, 1st or 2nd time lasix, turf to dirt, sprint to route, trainer changes etc, etc. Lets look at the race. Distance: 1 1/4 Miles Surface: Turf Open Age: 3 Year Olds and up Stakes Purse $ 1,000,000. In reverse liking...... 12 - Caitano 30-1 One of the slower horses coming into the race. Starts from the outside and will lose ground. 11 - Make No Mistake 12-1 Post works against him here also along with being one of the slower horses coming into the race. Could run one of his better races but still has too much to overcome. 8 - Compton Bolter 30-1 Too many negatives here, raced 2 weeks ago, ships in from Europe and hasn't run well here in the past. 9 - Quiet Resolve 15-1 Horse should be wide, not primed to jump forward, and don't see him getting a check. 5 - Muakaad 10-1 Appears to be in tough here. 2 - Silvano 10-1 Decent horse with a shot. Should be coming late but so will others. 4 - Takarian 30-1 Should be saving ground could get up for a check but don't see him winning. Might use underneath. 3 - Redattore 8-1 Should get a good trip, good post but there are faster horses available here. 7 - Senure 6-1 6 weeks rest and Frankel is a good layoff trainer. Horse is a closer who often goes to the rail saving ground. Horse could do very well here but must improve to win. He also has the possiblity since he is coming off a new top of bouncing. 6 - White Heart 6-1 Horse has improved tremendously off of last years numbers. Just wonder how much more improvement is possible. Will be watching the odds knowing that if some horses don't perform, this one is fast enough. 1 - Hap 5-1 Very nice improving horse who should get a ground saving trip. Has run very well this year and still has room for improvement looking at last years numbers. Has Bailey up who made a very smart trip here last year. Will look at the odds. 10 - Bienamado 2-1 Generally love to go against the favorite but this horse looks good. Lots of positives. Well rested, no weight disadvantage, set-up to run well, and can run under various conditions. In the 10 spot might cause him to run wide but still the horse is fast enough to make up that difference. How to bet this race : First off as always watch the boards for the value. If Bienamado is a very heavy favorite then possibly box around it or look for better value in the place and show spots. Liking right now 10-1-6-7. A case can certainly also be made on a nice win bet on Hap but odds board always determines my bets at the last minute. Good Luck. |
|