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Elusive 53% ... by Scotty T. Why 53%? Well, in short if you pick 53 plus percent winners on straight wagers with a -110 price tag you will make money in the long run, if you play the same amount on each bet. 53%!!!! Sounds extremely simple percentage to hit if you really know your sports, right? Well, if that is true, please tell me why we don't have more professional sports gamblers out there. Well, there are many pitfalls that get in the way of even the serious gambler. First, there are literally hundreds of games in a rotation on any given week. Especially during some winter months when you have the NHL, NBA, and NCAA hoops all trucking along at once. The first deadly sin enters the picture, NEED FOR ACTION! You don't really have a distinguishable edge, but you think team X will win so let's play it. Why not? There is no way I can lose every game right? Hmmmmm, all of a sudden you go 2-8. No, you didn't lose them all, but you are down to the late games and it is time to win your lost money back. Ahhhhh, the second deadly sin, CHASING LOSSES. Gotta be honest here, I have done it myself. Anyone can handle a win, but it takes a real pro to handle a bad beat loss. To me, it is all in how you handle the losses that will make you successful. Chasing losses leads to the third deadly sin, DRASTIC BET AMOUNT VARIATION. This point can be argued, hey if I got a huge advantage I should bet more. If you know the game is fixed, there is still a chance you might lose, believe it or not, anything can happen. You are throwing betting edge stats somewhat out the window if you bet $100 on one game and $1,000 on another for no particular reason other than you think you have a higher perceived advantage, which is subjective to begin with. You could hit 60% and still end up on the losing end with huge bet variations. Which leads us to deadly deadly sin number four, NO MONEY MANAGEMENT. You always bet X% of your bankroll, but then you go and play double or triple your usual play, for no particular reason. In doing that you are jeopardizing your bankroll, and if a loss does develop you might even start questioning your basic handicapping principles. The fifth and final deadly gambling sin ties in with money management, LACK OF DISCIPLINE. Actually, if you lose discipline you more or less likely to violate in some way the first four sins as well. When you lose discipline you no longer care, when that happens you are done! Review of ST's five deadly sports gambling sins: 1. Need for Action 2. Chasing Losses 3. Drastic Bet Amount Variation 4. No Money Management 5. Lack of Discipline So Mr. doom and gloom can someone actually be a professional gambler as it pertains to sports? I have been wrestling around with this question for quite awhile. Honestly I have come down on both Yes and No. But, I am siding on yes, I do think it can be done!!! Also, it ain't gonna be easy...... then again, something worthwhile and rewarding is seldom easily done. Thanks and good luck. |
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