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Fighting Through It ... by Scotty T. I had an experience that happened to me on Friday and Saturday in our field of sports gambling that reminded me of an article that I have wanted to write for quite some time but really have been putting it off. Friday and Saturday put me over the edge and I decided I had to put text to screen. This is the rare time of year that there are possibly five separate sports going on in North America that you get some action on; five major sports that is (College and Pro Football, College and Pro Hoops, Hockey). Well, Friday I had a total of 15 plays and won 12 and lost 3. Genius, right....... Yeah I think so too. Then, Saturday, I had a total of 17 plays and won 5 and lost 12. Moron, right....... Yeah I think so too. Did I get extremely stupid from the finish of games Friday to the start of games Saturday? It is possible!!!! All the beer that I have drank has finally taken its toll and Saturday morning my brain cells got together with my liver and revolted. Sure possible....... doubt it though....... I still like beer....... My guess is that the law of averages caught up with me because of Friday's great run. There was a study done that I want to share with everyone that pertains to losing streaks in our beloved field of sports gambling. This study has the following particulars: 1. It is based on 500 plays 2. You can hit 55% winners in those 500 plays which is a damn good handicapper The odds that you will lose two games in a row in that 500: 100% The odds that you will lose three games in a row in that 500: 100% The odds that you will lose four games in a row in that 500: 100% The odds that you will lose five games in a row in that 500: 100% The odds that you will lose six games in a row in that 500: 90% The odds that you will lose seven games in a row in that 500: 64% The odds that you will lose eight games in a row in that 500: 37% The odds that you will lose nine games in a row in that 500: 19% The odds that you will lose ten games in a row in that 500: 9% So what exactly am I saying? Plain, and simply this, YOU PLAY LONG ENOUGH YOU ARE GOING TO EXPERIENCE A LOSING STREAK! Remember this is a capper that hits 55% which is really outstanding. Just think of the percentages of the guy that hits 50% in those 500 plays. I qualify myself as a grinder, as it pertains to sports gambling. Which is like most people. They try to win more games than they lose, and they wake up the next day trying to put the last day behind them and grind out a little profit again. That being said I hate streaks!!!!! Not only losing streaks, but winning streaks as well. I am sure of you at this point you think, that I might be the stupidest individual they have ever met. This guy hates to win a lot of games in a row!!!! What a moronic idiot!!!! He has drank too much, in fact I think he is drunk while he is writing this!!!! Just think a second, when you win seven games in a row...... there is a little statistical term called regression towards the mean that states before you know it, you are going to get back to your normal percentages of wins and losses. I love to win as much the next guy, all I am stating is that I would much rather have a day to day level winning percentage instead of a roller coaster winning/losing fashion. What is the impact of a losing streak? The first one is quite obvious, you are separated from your money in a quick fashion. That leads to the old "get even" play. The old play the book loves you here call in. I am down a thousand bucks on the day, wasn't planning on making a play on the Sunday night game, but I need to get even. Even if you win that bet you can't feel good about it. You might as well bet that thousand bucks on the toss of a coin. So, in this case losing has brought about horrible money management. This loss of discipline has made many a bookmaker rich. As hard as it is, resist to deviate from your plan of x% play on any given game. By the way as far as I am concerned the most you should put down on any given play is 3% of your total bankroll. Personally I play just a touch less of 1% of my total bankroll on my plays. Doesn't sound like much, but it sure adds up. How much is decision up to each individual players comfort level, but the less percentage you play the less it screws with your mind on a losing spell. Next, and more importantly losing brings on self doubt as it pertains to your capping techniques. It begs the question, what am I doing wrong when capping my games? If you have a proven theory and you just run into a streak, don't let it change your methods from solid to weak. It does screw with your mind, mental stability and discipline is a must to get you through these losing streaks. What is the impact of a winning streak? Well, of course it does give you more money quickly. But, there are some pitfalls you have to look out for when on a winning streak as well. Mainly, I am bullet proof and can't lose. Therefore you are taking marginal games, because you are on a hot streak and have to ride the wave. Well, those are the type of theories and thinking that brings about the old regression theory. Also, money management gets hurt when on a tremendous winning streak. You bet over your head because you are winning and therefore in the end don't profit like you really should. Don't get me wrong, I would much rather have a winning streak than a losing streak. Just be careful in dealing with them both, because they are like snakes lying in weeds that can come up and grab ya by the short and curlys. I am friends with an old handicapper who seems to be constantly telling me, "There are plenty of good sports gamblers out there driving trucks instead of investing, not because they ain't smart enough, but they bet with their balls instead of their head." Note: There is nothing wrong with driving a truck, I just would rather be cappin'!!! |
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